11/09/2020 – The global economy continued to recover in October, even though the upturn was slow. For the current year, the IMF is forecasting a global contraction of 4.4%. Starting from a low level, growth in 2021 will increase significantly in most countries and, according to the IMF, will exceed 5% worldwide. However, the IMF believes that economic momentum over the next 18 months will be hampered by rising unemployment. The biggest risk factor remains the further course of the pandemic. Europe in particular is currently being hit by the strenght of the second wave of the pandemic and could therefore shrink again slightly in the fourth quarter. The announcement of a highly effective vaccine, for which emergency approval is to be applied for in the USA this month, is causing general relief and enthusiasm on the stock markets.
Read more in the Macroeconomic Comment by Peter von Elten, Macro Consultant at Belvoir Capital AG.