08/18/2021 – For the global economy, high growth rates are forecasted for the second half of 2021, but their validity remains limited because they are based on weak comparative figures from the previous year and on partly massive government intervention. The elimination of pandemic-related re-strictions, still considerable pent-up demand on the consumer side, and ongoing expansionary monetary and fiscal policy form the basis for the expected robust recovery, which is also expected to continue in the following year, albeit at a slower pace. In 2021 and 2022, the industrial coun-tries are predicted to achieve growth rates of over 5% and 4%, while the emerging countries are forecast to grow 1% more. However, several factors and events have dampened the euphoria somewhat in recent weeks and are likely to have an impact on the economic trend. These factors include the renewed sharp rise in the number of Covid-19 cases, declining economic growth in China, significantly higher inflation, the costs of climate change, and the continued strong influ-ence of the state on the economy.
Read more in this mon th’s Macroeconomic Comment by Peter von Elten.