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Strategy Update 4th Quarter 2023

Strategy Update 4th Quarter 2023

10.01.2024 Review: Interest rate cut expectations as a catalyst for equity markets The fourth quarter of 2023 was characterized by high volatility in the equity and bond markets. At the beginning of the quarter, we recorded yearly lows in equities and bonds, while falling interest rates received little attention. The prevailing expectation of “higher for longer” in interest rates exerted…

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Strategy Update 3rd Quarter 2023

Strategy Update 3rd Quarter 2023

06.10.2023 Interest rates: “higher for longer” – markets are in a hangover phase. Anyone who thought that central banks would cut interest rates again as early as the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024 has been proven wrong. Inflation figures are slowly improving in all industrialized countries but the economy remains especially robust in the US. The labor…

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Strategy Update 1st Quarter 2023

Strategy Update 1st Quarter 2023

04/05/2023 – Despite the stress in March, the markets in Europe developed comparatively better throughout the 1st quarter than stock exchanges in Asia and the US (except for the Nasdaq). Europe’s strong performance can be ascribed to lower valuations, surprisingly robust economic data and a different, more defensive composition of indices. In a time of heightened uncertainty in the financial…

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Strategy Update 4th Quarter 2022

Strategy Update 4th Quarter 2022

12/31/2022 – 2022 has not only been a challenge for investors. War in Ukraine, which just a year ago would have been unimaginable, inflation at a level not seen in about 30 years (mainly due to soaring energy costs), and the central banks tightening interest rates at a pace unprecedented in decades. Weakening economies in Europe and the US have…

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Strategy Update 3rd Quarter 2022

Strategy Update 3rd Quarter 2022

09/30/2022 – Are we over the worst already, or is this 2008 Reloaded? Though capital markets began to rally at the start of the third quarter, unfortunately this turned out to be a bear market rally. In fact, by the end of September, almost all leading indices were well below levels from the end of June 2022. In particular, the…

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Strategy Update 2nd Quarter 2022

Strategy Update 2nd Quarter 2022

06/30/2022 – What kind of first half year did we have to endure? The worst first six months in 50 years! Many spoke of a “perfect storm” that has been brewing over the last few months. War in Europe, commodity prices, especially energy prices, through the roof, huge problems in the supply chains (because of China’s zero-covid strategy), inflation at…

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Strategy Update 1th Quarter 2022

Strategy Update 1th Quarter 2022

04/05/2022 – When politics or ideologies and no longer economic facts or rational economic thinking dominate the markets, things get difficult. A longer-term investment horizon and a clear assessment of one’s own risk capacity are then indispensable. Investors repeatedly make the mistake of buying or selling stocks pro-cyclically. Timing is quite difficult. Panic and greed are bad advisors. With regard…

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Strategy Update 4th Quarter 2021

Strategy Update 4th Quarter 2021

01/05/2022 – The year 2021 was dominated by the start-up of vaccination programs, fiscal aid packages, still very loose central bank policies, and strong earnings growth. These factors led to an extremely pleasing year for equities, with earnings momentum slowing in the second half of the year. From September onwards, fears of interest rate hikes, very high inflation and new…

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Strategy Update 3nd Quarter 2021

Strategy Update 3nd Quarter 2021

09/30/2021 – We continue to favor equities over bonds and supplement with alternative investments that have little or no correlation to equities and interest rates. This includes crypto investments but also diversification into good hedge funds (where allowed), which help to reduce downside risks and somewhat smooth portfolio performance. In equities, we build on future themes, quality and market leadership…

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Strategy Update 2nd Quarter 2021

Strategy Update 2nd Quarter 2021

06/30/2021 – Almost all stock indices realized new highs in June; that applies to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the DAX and the SMI. It was the best 1st semester in 20 years. While the European markets clearly lagged the technology-heavy US markets last year, the situation was different this year. European stocks were able to start from a lower base…

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